Finally, the management has declare rights issue for First Reit in order to purchase two properties. I am no fundamental expert and I just took glimpse of their proposal.
Price at 0.50 is cheap, but a lot of rights is being declare, 5 for 4 to be exact. Recently, AIMS is at 7 for 20, which was their second rights. AIMS first rights was 2 for 1 due to the serious nature of their financial problem. First Reit has no issue with their finance. I really don't understand why they are doing this. Also one of the propose property is still under development. Personally, I don't like properties that are under development because of no past performance.
The presentation seemed ill-prepared. It did not clearly state how the income will accretive to current dividend and did not mentioned the gearing ratio after rights. They just give a figure on commencement rent for both property and future dividend yield which are just not enough info.
All in all, I'll continue to wait and see.
Tuesday, November 9, 2010
Friday, October 22, 2010
What's going on!
I was busy this whole month and was unable to update my blog. Also I was away from Singapore and was in Seoul last week. Finally, I am seeing some activity in steel business, but still not as excited as stock market.
I was not paying attention to stock market last week until now. Anyways, two new IPO, Global Logistics and Maple Tree Industrial, just opened. Without my consultation, my partner which is my wife went and buy both. Goodness. What's the hurry? I also divest SP Ausnet at 1.14 and bought K-Green at 1.1.
I will discuss further when I got the time. For now, take care in the mist.
I was not paying attention to stock market last week until now. Anyways, two new IPO, Global Logistics and Maple Tree Industrial, just opened. Without my consultation, my partner which is my wife went and buy both. Goodness. What's the hurry? I also divest SP Ausnet at 1.14 and bought K-Green at 1.1.
I will discuss further when I got the time. For now, take care in the mist.
Wednesday, October 6, 2010
Invest into Saizen
I receive Saizen Reit annual report last week and I find it easy to read. For me, anything that is easy to read is a plus for me. So I decided to increase my holding in Saizen Reit. I did a simple calculation to see at what price I should buy Saizen again.
At page 2 of annual report, it stated Saizen has 1,111,002,712 issued units and 335,354,705 outstanding warrants. Eventually, Saizen will have 1,446,357,417 issued units. Saizen declare dividend of 0.26 Singapore cents base on two months’ cash flow (pg. 4) and distribution to unit holders is JPY161,912,000. Using JPY161,912,000 to forecast next year distribution by multiply 6 which equals to JPY971,472,000. Then divide JPY971,472,000 by 1,446,357,417 units equals to JPY0.672 per unit and using exchange rate factor of 0.0158, its forecast dividend comes out to be S$0.0106 next year. My goal is to collect at least 8% of dividend from my investment so I divide S$0.0106 by 0.08 which is 0.1325. Therefore, I will invest Saizen when its share price goes down to 0.135.
At the time of writing, STI is reaching 3,200, now at 3,183. To me, it’s just plain incredible. Steel demand shows no such hype. Am I wrong? There is no correlation between steel and stock.
At page 2 of annual report, it stated Saizen has 1,111,002,712 issued units and 335,354,705 outstanding warrants. Eventually, Saizen will have 1,446,357,417 issued units. Saizen declare dividend of 0.26 Singapore cents base on two months’ cash flow (pg. 4) and distribution to unit holders is JPY161,912,000. Using JPY161,912,000 to forecast next year distribution by multiply 6 which equals to JPY971,472,000. Then divide JPY971,472,000 by 1,446,357,417 units equals to JPY0.672 per unit and using exchange rate factor of 0.0158, its forecast dividend comes out to be S$0.0106 next year. My goal is to collect at least 8% of dividend from my investment so I divide S$0.0106 by 0.08 which is 0.1325. Therefore, I will invest Saizen when its share price goes down to 0.135.
At the time of writing, STI is reaching 3,200, now at 3,183. To me, it’s just plain incredible. Steel demand shows no such hype. Am I wrong? There is no correlation between steel and stock.
Wednesday, September 22, 2010
Patience
I thought when PAP government announce the new property measures, stock market will fall somewhat. Well, I am wrong. The market continues to rise and breached 3100. I believe stock market will continue run as long people believe economy is in good shape.
I am in steel business and demand for steel has stabilized and I don’t see it reaching 2007 level anytime soon. But stock market is approaching 2007 level. To me, stock market should stay stagnant or going sideways not going up. What I miss here?
What I learn most from my meagerly experiences of trading or investment is patience. Understanding the stock market and learning technical and fundamental analysis are musts in trading or investing stocks. But without patience, you may buy high and sell low. Once you adopt a strategy and set the goal, you must be patient and wait for it. In my case, I’ll continue to wait for First Reit.
Thursday, September 9, 2010
Steady Performance
I have been following First Reit for quite some time and I had never invest it because I don't want too much exposure in Indonesia since I have Lippo Maple and I also have Plife in the portfolio. But I think I made a grave mistake. Let's take a look of First Reit.
As we can see, it's performance is very steady and I should have invest it long ago. First Reit latest dividend is 1.92 cents and with share price of 0.87, it's annualized yield is 8.8%. And gearing is at 15%. First Reit fits my criteria so I'll buy it if share price falls to 0.85.
As we can see, it's performance is very steady and I should have invest it long ago. First Reit latest dividend is 1.92 cents and with share price of 0.87, it's annualized yield is 8.8%. And gearing is at 15%. First Reit fits my criteria so I'll buy it if share price falls to 0.85.
Thursday, September 2, 2010
Inception
After Dark Knight, I noticed its director, Christopher Nolan, and he is really good. His latest work, Inception, is the best movie I seen this year, but unlike Dark Knight, it got no moral of the story. To me, it's pure entertainment so I like Dark Knight more.
If you are confuse with the level of dreams, please go below link.
http://www.cinemablend.com/new/An-Illustrated-Guide-To-The-5-Levels-Of-Inception-19643.html
Now here is link that looks at five ways to interpret the movie.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/blogs/browbeat/archive/2010/07/20/five-ways-of-looking-at-inception.aspx
The more I think about the movie, the more I believe in theory 2 that Cobb is the subject and the team is trying to get him back to reality. Besides the points mentioned in the link, I would like to add the following points to this theory:
1) The purpose of Cobb wants to go home is to see his children, but why the children can not come to see him? Go home is also a repetitive theme in the movie. Seeing children is the catalyst for the team to get Cobb back to reality.
2) The top topples because Cobb is so deep in the dream that he believes he is in reality. In order for him to go home, he must realize that he is in a dream. That's why the top never stops at the end scene, but it looks like it will topple at the very last second.
3) Lastly, the movie is a big hit, how can they not making a sequel.
If you are confuse with the level of dreams, please go below link.
http://www.cinemablend.com/new/An-Illustrated-Guide-To-The-5-Levels-Of-Inception-19643.html
Now here is link that looks at five ways to interpret the movie.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/blogs/browbeat/archive/2010/07/20/five-ways-of-looking-at-inception.aspx
The more I think about the movie, the more I believe in theory 2 that Cobb is the subject and the team is trying to get him back to reality. Besides the points mentioned in the link, I would like to add the following points to this theory:
1) The purpose of Cobb wants to go home is to see his children, but why the children can not come to see him? Go home is also a repetitive theme in the movie. Seeing children is the catalyst for the team to get Cobb back to reality.
2) The top topples because Cobb is so deep in the dream that he believes he is in reality. In order for him to go home, he must realize that he is in a dream. That's why the top never stops at the end scene, but it looks like it will topple at the very last second.
3) Lastly, the movie is a big hit, how can they not making a sequel.
Saturday, August 28, 2010
Saizen Re-start Distribution
As some may know, I use simple criteria to pick my stock to invest (please read my strategy page). Does it work? I am not too sure. But most importantly, do I follow it closely. Sadly, I really don't. If I did, Saizen should not be in the portfolio. Saizen had some serious problem with its debt and had to stop distribution after just one distribution. Also it raised money by issuing rights and warrants. Why did I buy it?
In its financial statement for Q3 ended 31/03/2010, management said they have started to accumulate cash for distribution, but did not state how much (pg. 15). So I have to make an intelligent guess and sorry to say, mine guess is not intelligent at all.
In FY2008, Saizen's gross revenue was JPY 3,578,346,000 and its distributable income was JPY 1,697,165,000 which is about 47% of revenue (pg. 3 of financial statement ended 30/06/2008). For Q3 ended 31/03/2010, Saizen's gross revenue is JPY 1,025,064,000 (pg. 2) and I assume 47% of revenue which is JPY481,780,080 will be the distributable income since that's the ratio for its first distribution. Then, 90% distributable income is JPY433,602,072 and divide this by total units of Saizen which is 952,932,055 (pg. 11) and you get JPY0.455 for dividend which is about S$0.0071 by using exchange rate of 0.0155. Let's multiply S$0.0071 by 4 which equals to S$0.0284 and divide it by S$0.16 (Saizen share price) which is 0.1775. This means the dividend yield is a whopping 17.8%. How can I not buy!
Now let's look what happen.
Management declare S$0.26 cents for FY2010 (pg. 3 of financial statement ended 30/06/2010) and this is base on the cash accumulated for months of May and June (pg. 2) so S$0.26 multiply by 6 is S$1.56 cents and dividend yield is 9.75% which is way below of my assumption. Saizen FY2010 gross revenue is JPY4,132,792,000 (pg 3) and divide this by 6 is JPY688,798,667 for two months' revenue. And May/June distributable income is JPY161,912,000 (pg. 7) which is only 23.5% of its revenue. I am not sure how this happen. Maybe the finance expenses are now a lot more costly. Also, there is a whole bunch of warrants waiting to be exercised and once exercised, dividend will be less. Did I buy the right stock?
In its financial statement for Q3 ended 31/03/2010, management said they have started to accumulate cash for distribution, but did not state how much (pg. 15). So I have to make an intelligent guess and sorry to say, mine guess is not intelligent at all.
In FY2008, Saizen's gross revenue was JPY 3,578,346,000 and its distributable income was JPY 1,697,165,000 which is about 47% of revenue (pg. 3 of financial statement ended 30/06/2008). For Q3 ended 31/03/2010, Saizen's gross revenue is JPY 1,025,064,000 (pg. 2) and I assume 47% of revenue which is JPY481,780,080 will be the distributable income since that's the ratio for its first distribution. Then, 90% distributable income is JPY433,602,072 and divide this by total units of Saizen which is 952,932,055 (pg. 11) and you get JPY0.455 for dividend which is about S$0.0071 by using exchange rate of 0.0155. Let's multiply S$0.0071 by 4 which equals to S$0.0284 and divide it by S$0.16 (Saizen share price) which is 0.1775. This means the dividend yield is a whopping 17.8%. How can I not buy!
Now let's look what happen.
Management declare S$0.26 cents for FY2010 (pg. 3 of financial statement ended 30/06/2010) and this is base on the cash accumulated for months of May and June (pg. 2) so S$0.26 multiply by 6 is S$1.56 cents and dividend yield is 9.75% which is way below of my assumption. Saizen FY2010 gross revenue is JPY4,132,792,000 (pg 3) and divide this by 6 is JPY688,798,667 for two months' revenue. And May/June distributable income is JPY161,912,000 (pg. 7) which is only 23.5% of its revenue. I am not sure how this happen. Maybe the finance expenses are now a lot more costly. Also, there is a whole bunch of warrants waiting to be exercised and once exercised, dividend will be less. Did I buy the right stock?
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