Seperation

I have been neglecting my blog for 4 months. It's not I am very busy. It's just not much actions to share and a bit lazy to update my blog. Well, you can't get rich by being lazy. Anyways, I have a few changes in my portfolio.

Me and my wife share the same bed and the burden of raising our kids, but we don't share much about anything else and our philosophies toward investment or life for that matter are very different. The portfolio I posted here is a combination of mine and my wife's. Since we are unable to compromise our investment style, it's really no point to combine our portfolios. Thus, I have decided to separate our portfolio and without her portfolio, I consider my portfolio a high risk portfolio because I have too much exposure on FSL.

I have decided to get rid of all REITS in my CPF portfolio and fill it with blue chips like SPH because REITS frequently need to raise money by issuing rights and it's a hassle to use CPF money to buy rights. As for cash portfolio, I'll get rid of FSL, Fraser Comm, and K-Green and buying up First and Saizen REIT only. I'll wait for the right time to do all this. I will suffer a great loss, but I think it's necessary because no more low risk stock like Singpost and Plife.

In my absent of blogging, I sold SP Ausnet and bought and sold First Reit.

First Reit Rights Issue

Finally, the management has declare rights issue for First Reit in order to purchase two properties. I am no fundamental expert and I just took glimpse of their proposal.

Price at 0.50 is cheap, but a lot of rights is being declare, 5 for 4 to be exact. Recently, AIMS is at 7 for 20, which was their second rights. AIMS first rights was 2 for 1 due to the serious nature of their financial problem. First Reit has no issue with their finance. I really don't understand why they are doing this. Also one of the propose property is still under development. Personally, I don't like properties that are under development because of no past performance.

The presentation seemed ill-prepared. It did not clearly state how the income will accretive to current dividend and did not mentioned the gearing ratio after rights. They just give a figure on commencement rent for both property and future dividend yield which are just not enough info.

All in all, I'll continue to wait and see.

What's going on!

I was busy this whole month and was unable to update my blog. Also I was away from Singapore and was in Seoul last week. Finally, I am seeing some activity in steel business, but still not as excited as stock market.

I was not paying attention to stock market last week until now. Anyways, two new IPO, Global Logistics and Maple Tree Industrial, just opened. Without my consultation, my partner which is my wife went and buy both. Goodness. What's the hurry? I also divest SP Ausnet at 1.14 and bought K-Green at 1.1.

I will discuss further when I got the time. For now, take care in the mist.

Invest into Saizen

I receive Saizen Reit annual report last week and I find it easy to read. For me, anything that is easy to read is a plus for me. So I decided to increase my holding in Saizen Reit. I did a simple calculation to see at what price I should buy Saizen again.

At page 2 of annual report, it stated Saizen has 1,111,002,712 issued units and 335,354,705 outstanding warrants. Eventually, Saizen will have 1,446,357,417 issued units. Saizen declare dividend of 0.26 Singapore cents base on two months’ cash flow (pg. 4) and distribution to unit holders is JPY161,912,000. Using JPY161,912,000 to forecast next year distribution by multiply 6 which equals to JPY971,472,000. Then divide JPY971,472,000 by 1,446,357,417 units equals to JPY0.672 per unit and using exchange rate factor of 0.0158, its forecast dividend comes out to be S$0.0106 next year. My goal is to collect at least 8% of dividend from my investment so I divide S$0.0106 by 0.08 which is 0.1325. Therefore, I will invest Saizen when its share price goes down to 0.135.

At the time of writing, STI is reaching 3,200, now at 3,183. To me, it’s just plain incredible. Steel demand shows no such hype. Am I wrong? There is no correlation between steel and stock.

Patience

I thought when PAP government announce the new property measures, stock market will fall somewhat. Well, I am wrong. The market continues to rise and breached 3100. I believe stock market will continue run as long people believe economy is in good shape.

I am in steel business and demand for steel has stabilized and I don’t see it reaching 2007 level anytime soon. But stock market is approaching 2007 level. To me, stock market should stay stagnant or going sideways not going up. What I miss here?

What I learn most from my meagerly experiences of trading or investment is patience. Understanding the stock market and learning technical and fundamental analysis are musts in trading or investing stocks. But without patience, you may buy high and sell low. Once you adopt a strategy and set the goal, you must be patient and wait for it. In my case, I’ll continue to wait for First Reit.

Steady Performance

I have been following First Reit for quite some time and I had never invest it because I don't want too much exposure in Indonesia since I have Lippo Maple and I also have Plife in the portfolio. But I think I made a grave mistake. Let's take a look of First Reit.

 
As we can see, it's performance is very steady and I should have invest it long ago. First Reit latest dividend is 1.92 cents and with share price of 0.87, it's annualized yield is 8.8%. And gearing is at 15%. First Reit fits my criteria so I'll buy it if share price falls to 0.85.

Inception

After Dark Knight, I noticed its director, Christopher Nolan, and he is really good. His latest work, Inception, is the best movie I seen this year, but unlike Dark Knight, it got no moral of the story. To me, it's pure entertainment so I like Dark Knight more.

If you are confuse with the level of dreams, please go below link.
http://www.cinemablend.com/new/An-Illustrated-Guide-To-The-5-Levels-Of-Inception-19643.html

Now here is link that looks at five ways to interpret the movie.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/blogs/browbeat/archive/2010/07/20/five-ways-of-looking-at-inception.aspx

The more I think about the movie, the more I believe in theory 2 that Cobb is the subject and the team is trying to get him back to reality. Besides the points mentioned in the link, I would like to add the following points to this theory:

1) The purpose of Cobb wants to go home is to see his children, but why the children can not come to see him? Go home is also a repetitive theme in the movie. Seeing children is the catalyst for the team to get Cobb back to reality.
2) The top topples because Cobb is so deep in the dream that he believes he is in reality. In order for him to go home, he must realize that he is in a dream. That's why the top never stops at the end scene, but it looks like it will topple at the very last second.
3) Lastly, the movie is a big hit, how can they not making a sequel.